COP29 Begins in Baku
On the 11th November 2024 the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP29) officially launched in Baku, Azerbaijan.
One of three COPs happening this year (the others being the Biodiversity COP in Columbia & the Desertification COP in Saudi Arabia) this marks the second COP in a row to be hosted by a petrostate and will focus primarily on the provision of finance to help mitigate and adapt to climate change. It comes one year after parties agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable power and double energy efficiency by 2030 during negotiations in Dubai at COP28.
The Hosts
As part of the rotating presidency of the COP process, Azerbaijan was selected from other Eastern European countries in October 2023, after Russia blocked bids from the EU and Armenia withdrew its objections to Azerbaijan originating in conflicts between the two countries in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
A petrostate, Azerbaijan is rated as “Critically Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker due to its heavy dependence on fossil fuels, increase in methane emissions, and the fact it was actually one of a very small group of countries that submitted a less ambitious NDC in 2023 than previous submissions, in contradiction to the ratcheting principle of ever-greater ambitions set up by the Paris agreement.
Just 3 days before the start of the COP, BBC News released an investigation that showed the Chief Exec of Azerbaijan’s COP team, Elnur Soltanov, appearing to use his position to promote oil and gas contract opportunities to a fake investment company, in direct contradiction to the role of a COP president. The former head of the UNFCCC, Christiana Figueres, said “such behaviour was "contrary and egregious" to the the purpose of COP and "a treason" to the process”.
Azerbaijan has stated that it intends to use the COP to kickstart green energy investment in the country and the COP website says the country “is committed to developing its renewable energy potential, which is an important part of the country’s plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2050. The country intends to increase renewable power capacity to 30% by 2030 and diversify its existing energy system to become a leader in green energy. Azerbaijan is committed to leading by example and will update its national targets in its next 1.5-aligned Nationally Determined Contribution.”
The Negotiations
The COP process is designed to ratchet up emission reduction ambitions from all parties each year, and each country has to submit their “Nationally Determined Contributions” at least every 5 years. The next major round of submissions will be at COP30 in Brazil next year, so don’t expect a raft of nations updating their plans in Baku.
The main topic up for negotiation this year is finance.
At the COP there is an aim to agree a “new collective quantified goal” on climate finance. Long one of the main sticking points of the negotiations, it took the developed world a long time to reach the agreed to $100bn in climate finance, and there is now a greater recognition that this is still woefully insufficient to help developing countries transition away from the use of fossil fuels as well as recover from climate-induced natural disasters.
Under the Paris Agreement timeline nations have to decide on this new goal by 2025, but according to a Caron Brief analysis:
“Nations disagree on virtually every element of the NCQG, including the amount of money that needs to be raised, who should contribute, what types of finance should feed into it, what it should fund and what period of time it should cover.
Developing countries are looking to high-income parties, such as the US and the EU, to provide the money. Meanwhile, developed countries want an all-encompassing goal that includes input from private companies and large, emerging economies, such as China.”
We’ll be keeping an eye on how these financial negotiations play out as the COP progresses.
The Elephant (not) in the Room
Donald Trump. (2024, November 11). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
Looming large over proceedings is the fact that America has just elected Donald Trump to return to the White House in January 2025.
In Baku, this means that the US negotiators are a bit of a lame duck, and will lose influence, especially over the climate finance discussions.
Trump has promised to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, there is a potential threat he would even withdraw from the UNFCCC (which would require an act of congress to re-enter, not just an executive order), he believes climate change is a hoax, he wants to expand US Oil and Gas production from already record highs, and cut any federal incentives for EVs and other clean technologies. He is unlikely to support any climate finance initiatives with the rest of the world, and one analysis puts the predicted cost of his presidency at 4bn tonnes of CO2.
Still, the US is not the whole world. No other nation joined America when it left the Paris Agreement during Trump’s first term. The energy transition is in full swing. Prices for solar and batteries continue to fall precipitously. Climate-related extreme weather events are affecting all nations around the globe. In the US the political response to Trump’s first term was the Inflation Reduction Act, the biggest government investment in clean energy ever, which has poured millions of dollars into clean energy manufacturing and jobs in mainly red districts across the country - making it potentially tricky to fully repeal.
Once again, States, Cities, corporations and other non-state actors (like the Climate Alliance) will have to carry the burden of climate action without any help (and possibly with a lot of hindrance) from the federal government. In the end it is up to the people to make the case that strong climate action is a vote-winning strategy. Clean air, clean water, a stable environment, green jobs and a rekindling of US manufacturing can make a compelling argument.
Our COP Coverage
We will be following the proceedings at COP29 closely, and will bring you key updates as the negotiations take place.
Trump’s return to the White House is obviously a big climate and energy story, and we will be bringing you updates on the affects on the Inflation Reduction Act, non-state actors work to keep climate ambition alive, and the progress of the energy transition throughout what is sure to be a tumultuous few years.
We will also be bringing you a series of blogs on what happened at the other major COP recently, the Biodiversity COP in Cali, Columbia, where we have linked up with a number of young climate activists who were present. We will bring you their thoughts on the negotiations shortly.
Stay tuned!