The Production Gap: A Key Challenge for COP28
On 8 November 2023, the Stockholm Environment Institute, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development and United Nations Environment Programme ‘UNEP’ published the latest in a regular series of Production Gap Reports, “The Production Gap: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan ever more extraction despite climate promises.”
The authors and reviewers of this report have done the world a service, by pointing out and carefully documenting some inconvenient truths, just ahead of the COP28 climate talks.
The key findings of the report are set out in full here -
“KEY FINDINGS
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Taken together, government plans and projections would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050. This conflicts with government commitments under the Paris Agreement, and clashes with expectations that global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak within this decade even without new policies.
Major producer countries have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and launched initiatives to reduce emissions from fossil fuel production, but none have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Governments should be more transparent in their plans, projections, and support for fossil fuel production and how they align with national and international climate goals.
There is a strong need for governments to adopt near- and long-term reduction targets in fossil fuel production and use to complement other climate mitigation targets and to reduce the risks of stranded assets.
Given risks and uncertainties of carbon capture and storage and carbon dioxide removal, countries should aim for a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum. The potential failure of these measures to develop at scale calls for an even more rapid global phase-out of all fossil fuels.
An equitable transition away from fossil fuel production must recognize countries’ differentiated responsibilities and capabilities. Governments with greater transition capacity should aim for more ambitious reductions and help finance the transition processes in countries with limited capacities.”
Figure ES.1 from the report - link here
The report spells out that 20 countries are responsible for 82% of the production, and 72% of the consumption of the world’s fossil fuels. The report analyses –
…” the climate ambitions and fossil fuel production policies and strategies of 20 major producer countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK), and the United States of America (US).”
(for a summary of each of these countries’ plans see Figure ES.1 on page 6 of the Report).
The report points out that -
…”the combined levels of coal, oil, and gas production being planned/projected by 10 high-income countries alone would already exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways for each fuel by 2040. Similarly, the trajectories of oil and gas production being planned and projected by 12 countries with relatively lower levels of economic dependence on their production would exceed the respective 1.5°C-consistent pathways by 2040 …”
and
“…While 17 of the 20 countries profiled have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, and many have launched initiatives to reduce emissions from fossil fuel production activities, most continue to promote, subsidize, support, and plan on the expansion of fossil fuel production.”
Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, made these comments on the Report and the weather patterns emerging from climate change -
“The escalating frequency and intensity of these events are a direct result of anthropogenic climate change, which is driven by humanity’s addiction to fossil fuels. By committing to limiting global temperature rise through the Paris Agreement, governments have shown they understand this. They have shown they want to change.
Yet, as this report shows, the addiction to fossil fuels still has its claws deep in many nations.
Governments are planning to produce, and the world is planning to consume, over double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with the pathway to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. These plans throw the global energy transition into question. They throw humanity’s future into question. Governments must stop saying one thing and doing another, especially as it relates to the production and consumption of fossil fuels.”